How long can Iran continue the war?

did iran surrender

U.S. and Israel vow more strikes as Trump attends dignified transfer of fallen troops

Trump blamed Iran for the school bombing, contradicting preliminary findings that indicated a U.S. munition may have been responsible, sources have said.

It's a question that echoes in the headlines, a tense moment in a long-standing geopolitical drama: Did Iran bomb Israel? The reality, as is often the case in complex international relations, is a bit more nuanced than a simple yes or no.

Looking back at recent events, particularly in mid-2025, we saw a significant escalation between Israel and Iran. Iran reported that between June 13th and June 24th, Israeli airstrikes targeted various sites across Iran, including nuclear and military facilities. These attacks, according to Iranian authorities, resulted in a considerable number of casualties, including senior commanders, nuclear scientists, and civilians, with the death toll reportedly nearing 1,100.

And yes, Iran did retaliate. In response to these Israeli strikes, Iran launched multiple waves of missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli territory. This exchange led to further casualties and damage on both sides. It wasn't just a one-way street; it was a direct, albeit brief, confrontation.

Adding another layer to this intricate conflict, US forces also became involved, bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22nd. Iran's response to this was to strike the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This shows how interconnected these regional tensions can become.

Thankfully, after 12 days of intense fighting, a ceasefire was brokered and reached on June 24th, bringing a temporary halt to the hostilities. The international community, including the UN chief, welcomed this announcement and urged both nations to fully respect it.

But why does this conflict simmer? Israel's actions against Iran are rooted in deep-seated concerns. For years, Israel has viewed Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, fearing it could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Beyond that, Iran's funding and arming of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which are openly hostile to Israel, is a major security concern. Iran's expanding influence in regions like Syria, Yemen, and Iraq also directly threatens Israel's security interests. And, as we've seen, retaliatory strikes for attacks on its soil or against its allies are a significant driver of these military actions.

It's a delicate dance of security concerns, regional power plays, and historical grievances. While the immediate exchange of fire has ceased, the underlying tensions that fuel such conflicts remain, a constant reminder of the fragile peace in the region.

How long can Iran continue the war

How long can Iran continue the war?

In the war with the US and Israel, Iran is largely on its own. The regime is relying primarily on its missile and drone systems and has no intention of surrendering.

Iran has prepared itself for a long war, unlike the United States, Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Middle East nation's Supreme National Security Council, said on the third day of the US-Israel war against Iran.

Larijani reiterated what other officials of the Islamic Republic have been saying since the military conflict began: "We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost."

Since February 28, the US and Israel have been conducting a coordinated, massive military offensive against Iran, targeting in particular Iranian leaders as well as military and other government facilities.

Even though several high-ranking Iranian officials have been killed, the Islamic theocratic regime remains intact, so far.

And Tehran has responded by lobbing missiles and drones on targets in Israel and in neighboring Persian Gulf countries, including US bases across the region.

The United Arab Emirates says it alone has been targeted by hundreds of Iranian rockets and drones in recent days.

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Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the US Central Command, said that Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones by Wednesday, March 4. He accused Tehran of indiscriminately attacking civilians in the process.

"We don't know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran actually has," a weapons expert, who asked not to be named, told DW.

Logistics and production of missiles and drones

At the start of the war on Saturday, the Israeli military estimated that Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles.

But the stockpile is likely to have reduced significantly since then, not only due to Iran firing missiles on targets across the region but also because of US-Israeli strikes destroying and burying many bomb storage sites.

Satellite images currently circulating online purport to show attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnel entrances to underground storage facilities that are said to have been destroyed in recent attacks.

"e are also seeing that mobile missile launchers are being pursued with great vigor," said the weapons expert. "What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to technological advances. Still, the question remains as to how many of these systems have actually been destroyed."

It is not clear how many missiles were removed from these sites and dispersed across the country ahead of the war, and how many functional missile launchers Iran still has.

On March 4, the Israeli military warned that Iran retains substantial capacity to launch missiles against Israel, despite ongoing strikes targeting missile launch sites in the Islamic Republic.

Iran is also believed to have the ability to quickly ramp up the production of drones. According to leaked Russian documents, Tehran can produce around 5,000 drones per month.

The drones are launched from a simple scaffold that can be built in just a few hours.

The production of one of these drones, called Shahed, is said to cost Iran several thousand dollars. A US-made Patriot interceptor missile, on the other hand, costs up to about $3 million (€2.59 million) each.

According to an analysis by the New York Times based on satellite images and verified videos, Iran used its short-range missiles and drones over the weekend and on Monday to damage structures that are part of communications and radar systems at or near at least seven US military bases in the Middle East.

The US military's communications infrastructure is kept strictly secret, making it difficult to determine exactly which systems may have been affected. But the attacks on these sites suggest that Iran wanted to disrupt the US' communication and coordination capabilities.

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Consequences for the population and the region

"Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time," Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, told DW.

"The Iranian leadership has had time to plan and coordinate its actions. I think they are preparing for a long war," he added, pointing out that the overarching goal of the Iranian regime is resilience — the ability to persevere, to absorb the blows, and then continue to fight.

Meanwhile, the cost of the war is borne primarily by the general public in Iran, who are defenseless against the attacks.

Even though the US and Israel claim to be carrying out targeted strikes, high levels of collateral damage are almost inevitable in densely populated cities.

According to Iranian sources, a primary school in the southern city of Minab was hit on the first day of the conflict. On Tuesday, Iranian state media showed images of mass funerals for the 168 children, as well as their teachers, who reportedly died in the attack.

The United Nations described the incident as "absolutely shocking" and called for an investigation. Israel denied attacking the school in Minab, which is located about 40 kilometers from the Gulf of Oman. The US, which has two aircraft carrier strike groups deployed to the region, announced that it would investigate the incident.

How many American troops should die for this?’: veterans split on war with IranNearly two decades after his second tour, Nathan Wendland is still troubled by his experiences in Iraq.

Like 700,000 other Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, the 46-year-old former US army staff sergeant receives compensation for post-traumatic stress disorder. Last January, Wendland checked himself into a psychiatric emergency room because he was worried he would kill himself. He was on the mend, but then Donald Trump ordered a sustained campaign of airstrikes on Iran. All those memories came flooding back.

“This war brings triggers into the news cycle every hour,” he said. “I cannot focus on my daily life.”

For Wendland and other veterans of the post-9/11 wars, the attack on Iran brings troubling echoes of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, another war of choice based on questionable claims of weapons of mass destruction that threatens to destabilize the entire region, with no clear endgame and a seemingly callous disregard for civilian casualties.

a man in army uniform 

Nathan Wendland. Photograph: Courtesy of Nathan Wendland

Six US military service members have been killed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes. In Iran, US-Israeli airstrikes struck a girls school and left more than 100 children dead.

“We’ve put young men and women and support staff in bases all over the world at risk for no reason,” said Shawn VanDiver, a navy veteran and founder of #AfghanEvac, a coalition of 250 veterans, national security and human rights groups which helped rescue thousands of America’s Afghan allies after Kabul’s 2021 fall to the Taliban.

VanDiver said the irony was that many veterans voted for Trump specifically because he promised to keep the US out of wars. “Too many of our generation and friends died fighting these illegal wars that he said he wasn’t going to get us back into,” he said.

In Washington, lawmakers who served in Iraq and Afghanistan have been among the most outspoken in their rebuke of the administration.

“It’s a scary situation when you don’t hear what the plan is, what the victory is, when the president doesn’t lay out what the goals are. You don’t know what part you are in that mission, and what does that mean for your life,” said Senator Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat and marine corps veteran of the Iraq war whose unit sustained heavy casualties.

Gallego said the war was illegal, arguing there was “no imminent threat” permitting the Trump administration to circumvent congressional authorization.

Democratic representative Chris DeLuzio of Pennsylvania, a navy veteran of the Iraq war, said “every hawk cheerleading this war” should “answer a simple question: how many American troops should die for this?”

Veteran opinion is hardly unanimous, however, including in Congress.

Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican and combat veteran of the Iraq war, backed the president, arguing the six American service members killed by Iran “gave their lives in support of a noble mission: protecting: protecting their fellow Americans and keeping our homeland secure”.

Trump won nearly two-thirds of the veteran vote in 2024, according to exit polls. Many, especially, older veterans, are sticking with the president, saying he took bold action to attack a regime determined to destroy the US.

“They chant ‘death to Israel’, ‘death to the United States’,” said Don Buhl, a 77-year-oldnavy veteran of the Vietnam war, who ministered for the Campus Crusade for Christ.

Buhl, who lives in Minden, Nevada (population 3,000), is a three-time Trump voter. “They say we’re the great Satan,” he said of the Iranian government. “You can’t negotiate with that.”

The American Legion, which boasts 1.6 million members in more than 12,000 posts across America, released a statement praising the presidentTrump. “The Iranian regime has been the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, kidnapping and murdering U.S. citizens and targeting U.S. military and allied personnel through proxies,” the statement said. “While there may be debate about the immediate justification for these actions, there is strong bipartisan agreement that the Iranian regime poses an enormous threat to the United States and our allies.”

But to Stephanie Keegan, the US military’s attack on Iran is both illegal and not worth the loss of American lives.. Her son, Sgt Daniel Keegan, deployed on two special operations tours in Kandahar, Afghanistan, with the 82nd Airborne Division and succumbed at home after developing an infection linked to his heroin addiction.

a man holding a cup 

Daniel Keegan. Photograph: Courtesy of Stephanie Keegan

Keegan said her son, who was named seventh Special Group Soldier of the Year, would strongly oppose this war. “This would be an absolute abomination to him,” she said. “The rules and the constitution were not followed. The necessity has not been validated. He would have felt deceived.”

VanDiver said his immediate concern is for the safety of 1,100 of America’s Afghan allies at Camp Al Sayliyah, a former US military base in Qatar that is now run by the state department.

US patriot missiles are intercepting most Iranian attacks, he said, but the explosions send flaming balls of shrapnel falling from the sky, “flying into bedrooms where their children are sleeping. They are terrified.”

Residents of the camp, who are awaiting permission to come to the US, include 150 immediate family members of active duty military, VanDiver said.

Rachel Leingang contributed reporting

 This story was amended on 7 March 2026 to correct the spelling of Don Buhl’s name.